Market space: By the end of 2014, a total of 723 charging stations and 28,000 charging piles have been built nationwide. The ratio of charging facilities to new energy vehicles is only about 1:4. The “Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Construction Plan” was recently released. By 2020, the number of charging and replacing stations will reach 12,000, the number of charging piles will reach 4.5 million, and the market for charging facilities will be around 100 billion.
Market Status: There is still uncertainty in the development of the charging pile industry chain. The charging habits of electric vehicle users have not yet been finalized; the impact of large-scale centralized fast charging on the power grid is not easy to solve; the utilization rate of charging facilities is low, and it is difficult to earn profits only by charging charging service fees. ;
Market development: Power grids, Sinopec and other large state-owned enterprises, BAIC and other automakers, as well as various types of charging facilities construction and operation companies are participating in the competition. At present, the charging infrastructure is limited, and the profit mainly comes from the electricity price difference and the charging service fee. The profit model of each company is not clear. The charging infrastructure needs to be scaled up, and the operating companies can master more core data, and the "Internet +" port function of the charging facility can be reflected.
1. Core components - market space calculation
The core components of new energy vehicles include battery, motor and electronic control. The cost of the whole vehicle is 30%-45%, and the electric control of the motor accounts for 20%-25%. The whole vehicle and other parts account for the rest. 20%.
From the perspective of plate elasticity, the power battery accounts for the highest proportion of the total vehicle cost and the largest plate space. Parts and components are sorted by market value in 2020: Cell > Motor Controller > Motor > BMS > PACK
2, core components - power battery
Market space: The power battery is the core component of the new energy vehicle, which directly determines the performance of the vehicle. In 2014, China's demand for power batteries is about 3GWh. By 2020, with the new energy vehicles, the demand for power batteries will rise to around 37GWh. According to the estimated price of existing batteries, the market for power lithium batteries is nearly 100 billion yuan. The largest space among all components.
Technical route: The national innovation project has continuously increased the battery energy density requirements. The transition from lithium iron phosphate to ternary materials has been confirmed. The major automakers have switched rapidly. The high-tech lithium battery is expected to account for 20% of the total power battery in China this year. Next year will rise to 50%, gradually surpassing lithium iron phosphate to become the mainstream route;
Supply and demand relationship: According to our calculations, the planned production capacity in 2015 cannot be completely released, and the entire power lithium battery market is still in short supply. By 2016, the incomplete statistical planning capacity will reach 40GWh. With the release of production capacity, the supply and demand relationship of power lithium battery capacity may be reversed, and the differentiation will be obvious, triggering industry reshuffle.
2, core components - power battery
Competition pattern: From the data of 2014, AESC, LG and BYD occupy the top three global shipments, and BYD, Guoxuan, Lishen, and AVIC Lithium and other enterprises are leading domestic shipments. Foreign battery factories and OEMs have close equity cooperation relationship, and in addition to BYD's own production, the matching relationship between battery factories and vehicle manufacturers is still scattered. On the other hand, the gap between domestic battery performance and Japanese and Korean companies is obvious. The new plants of Samsung SDI and LG Chem will be put into production next year, which will have an impact on domestic battery companies, compressing the living space, and the supply and demand relationship will usher in a reversal. The reshuffle of the domestic battery industry is inevitable.
Who can win: According to the competitive landscape, winning companies must have the following characteristics: advanced equipment, high level of automation; leading quality control, avoiding systemic risks; excellent technology development, continuous development of new products; sufficient capacity to meet new energy sources The demand for high-speed development of automobiles; there is no upfront investment package, and the possibility of new production capacity plus experienced technicians is greater;
3, parts - motor electronic control
Market space: New energy automotive motors and motor controllers are the core components of new energy vehicles. The whole vehicle volume will drive the development of the industry. It is estimated that by 2020, the market space for electronic control of new energy vehicles will reach 40 billion yuan.
Competition pattern: Domestic market participants are divided into three categories: 1) traditional motor vehicle manufacturers in other areas to transform across borders; 2) from the beginning of the establishment to the new energy vehicle motor electronic control; 3) with traditional vehicles and From the technical level, the domestic motor has not been much different from the international level. Most of the OEMs cooperate with domestic enterprises. The market space will gradually increase in the future, and foreign companies will not be excluded from competition, but they will be affected. Will be lower than the battery industry.
Future development: The main market structure has been formed. It is difficult for new investment to seize the high land. The industry will transform between stocks. Through mergers and acquisitions, strong alliances, and the formation of alliances with capital advantages and technological market advantages will build a strong moat.
4, core components - electric air conditioning
Market space: Electric air conditioners are the most energy-consuming auto parts in new energy vehicles except motors. They have an impact on continuation mileage of 1/4~1/3. According to the average price of 60,000 yuan/set of large and medium-sized passenger cars and 5,000 yuan/set of passenger cars, the market space of the electric air-conditioning industry will reach 16 billion yuan by 2020. The passenger car air-conditioning market is currently dominated, and the passenger car market has a large growth potential.
Market pattern: The market concentration of large and medium-sized passenger car air conditioners is relatively high, and the passenger car market is relatively scattered. The passenger car air-conditioning sales model is mainly based on direct orders from public transportation and automobile transportation companies. The customer has high viscosity and the gross profit margin is as high as 40%. The domestic market has been divided by Songzhi, Hunan Huaqiang and Guangzhou Lean. Get the order. The passenger car air-conditioning market is dominated by the standard mode. The market competition is fierce, relatively scattered, and the profit level is low. At present, foreign-funded enterprises still have obvious advantages.
Future development: The main pattern of the passenger car air-conditioning market has been formed, and the leading enterprise “strong and strong” situation will continue. The passenger car air-conditioning market has not been reshuffled, and the industry needs to be further integrated. Enterprises with technological and customer resource advantages can dominate by strong alliances.