Trend of global drive motor market
According to estimates, with the rapid advancement of global motorization, the new energy vehicle motor system market will expand rapidly. the market size is expected to increase from $ 2.3 billion in 2015 to $ 31.8 billion in 2030.
The motor system of new energy vehicles mainly includes two parts: motor and inverter. although these two parts, like most other automobile parts, are under pressure to reduce prices for a long time, the industry as a whole still has a large room for improvement due to the increase in the total number of new energy vehicles. We expect the average annual growth rate of the market scale to be about 18 % - 20 % by 2030.
As for the unit price of the system, the overall development of the motor system in the direction of high power has also brought about an increase in the assembly price.
According to estimates, under the neutral hypothesis, the sales volume of electric vehicles will reach 20 million units in 2030, accounting for 16 % - 18 % of the total sales volume of passenger cars in that year. However, if we put it into an optimistic scenario, that is, the price of batteries falls sharply and the environmental protection policy is stricter, the speed of sales growth of electric vehicles is likely to rise sharply. we expect that the total annual sales of new energy vehicles will reach 30 million units, accounting for about 25 % to 27 % of the total sales of vehicles in that year under an optimistic scenario.
It is estimated that the power demand of the single-motor hybrid vehicle is about 30 kw, the plug-in hybrid power of the double-motor is about 50 - 100 kw, and the motor power of the pure electric vehicle is about 200 kw.
Motor market situation
We expect the average annual growth rate of motor sales to reach 18 % by 2030, and the overall industry sales to reach $ 19.5 billion by 2030, an increase of nearly 17 times compared with the level of $ 1.2 billion in 2015.
The sales volume of electric motors is expected to rise from 3.6 million in 2015 to 49 million in 2030. at the same time, the number of single-motor vehicles is expected to decline from 1.8 to 1.4, mainly due to the increase in the proportion of single-motor electric vehicles sold.
However, the unit price of motors is expected to increase further, from the current $ 350 to $ 380, mainly driven by the wider application of high-priced and high-power motors.
Judging from the market share, Toyota group is far ahead of Honda group in 2016 data, while Honda group is second. at the same time, these two groups are also leading the world in the mixed field. Then came BYD and Toyoda motor, a Taiwanese motor manufacturer that supplies Tesla.
In the long-term development of the motor industry, the rise of third-party suppliers will be the general trend. If we look at the current situation of Japan's automobile industry chain, it is not difficult to find that the top three leading companies tend to supply their own motor products. this is not only related to the traditional genes of Japanese manufacturing enterprises, but also related to the development stage of the industry.
If we compare the development history of PC and mobile phone industry, it is not difficult to find that these two industries are highly integrated production upstream and downstream in the early stage. both HP, apple and silicon companies in the PC industry and Nokia and Motorola in the mobile phone industry are highly integrated production in the industrial chain. because the upgrading speed of products is fast in the early stage and the upstream parts suppliers are required to respond and cooperate with each other quickly, the integrated production mode has higher cost performance.
However, in the middle and later stages of the development of the industry, due to the expansion of the entire market scale and the fact that the upgrading speed of products does not need to be as fast as in the early stage, the scale effect of third-party suppliers targeting the entire market is manifested, which also gave birth to the rise of a series of third-party suppliers such as Foxconn, Meguiar and Hynix.
The motor industry of new energy vehicles is no exception. from the current point of view, Honda has announced that it will cooperate with Hitachi in the production of motors. At the same time, Nissan also mentioned at the investor exchange that it might start to extract electric motors in the future.
In October 2017, Mitsubishi electric announced that it would supply Daimler Mercedes with motors and inverters. With the popularization of high-performance and low-cost products from third-party motor manufacturers, it is the general trend for the market share of the motor industry to transfer from the host plant to the third-party enterprises.
At present, Japan's motor enterprises have begun to respond to the trend changes brought about by motorization one after another. We expect that the electric equipment and aisin precision machinery will first take advantage of their existing scale advantages and take market share with lower costs, while the following electric products and Ming Dian house will also follow up quickly.
At present, the average gross profit rate of the motor industry is around 30 %, and the production scale is one of the main factors that determine the gross profit rate.