In 2017, the global economic growth rate and growth expectations are expected to increase. The economic growth of developed economies is good, and the growth rate of emerging markets and developing economies has stabilized and rebounded. While the world economy is picking up, the risk threats have not yet dissipated, and the adjustment of the world economic structure is still going on. The Chinese economy continues to maintain a good growth rate, and the performance of various economic indicators is conspicuous, gradually shifting from a high-speed growth phase to a high-quality development phase.
(1) Industry analysis and review
1, home appliance industry
In 2017, China's white goods industry showed a good growth trend. Among them, benefiting from the growth of consumer demand brought by economic growth, high temperature weather and the delayed effect brought about by the surge in domestic real estate demand in 2016, China's air conditioner market in 2017 The situation greatly exceeds the expectations of the air-conditioning industry. According to the “2017 China Air Conditioning Industry Report” issued by Zhongyikang, the retail volume and retail sales of China's air-conditioning market reached 57.87 million units and 198.7 billion yuan in 2017, a year-on-year growth rate of 27.4% and 32.4%, both production and sales scale hit a record high. According to the industry online data, the cumulative production and sales of air-conditioning motors in 2017 was 331,292,000 units, an increase of 21.4% over the same period of last year; in 2017, the cumulative number of cold-air motors in the year was 129.686 million units, up 19.5% year-on-year. The air-conditioning industry has significant inventory-removing effects, and the price war has been alleviated. Air-conditioning companies have taken advantage of product upgrades to accelerate the penetration of smart air conditioners and optimize profitability. In addition, the channel has fully sank the third- and fourth-tier markets to stimulate new demand.
With the continuous growth of China's national income, the consumption structure of China's home appliances continues to improve, consumers' demand for home appliances is also getting higher and higher, and high-end home appliances are receiving more attention from consumers. High-end home appliances, small appliances and high-efficiency smart appliances It is favored in the market and creates huge market capacity. In the future, China's home appliance industry is expected to move from a high-speed growth period to a growth stage characterized by structural upgrading. By strengthening supply-side structural reforms and expanding supply of high-value-added products, it will generate revenue and profits for home appliances and related components. The rate has a positive impact.
2, the automotive industry
(1) Traditional car
Affected by factors such as the decline in purchase tax incentives and the consumption overdraft in 2016, the growth rate of China's automobile production and sales has slowed down compared with the same period in 2016. According to the statistics released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in 2017, China sold 28.879 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 3%, of which passenger car sales were 47.818 million, an increase of 1.4%.
China is the world's largest auto consumer market, and domestic auto consumers are becoming more mature and forming a unique consumer philosophy. In the future, with the further improvement of domestic urbanization rate and the further improvement of infrastructure construction, the increase in per capita income, the demand for automobile and other consumer goods will continue to increase, and the demand for first-time car purchase and redemption will remain strong, which will drive the consumption of automobile products to continue to grow, and the vehicle market will continue. The prosperity continues to drive demand for auto parts, and the ever-increasing number of car ownership has also driven the boom in the automotive starter and generator markets. At the same time, the high-end products of domestic products and brands are steadily unfolding, and the car will turn to high-quality development, which will drive the upgrading of domestic auto parts enterprises and enhance their profitability.
(2) New energy vehicles
In 2017, due to factors such as subsidized subsidies, re-examination of subsidy catalogues, and re-evaluation of management access standards, the growth of domestic new energy vehicle market slowed down in the early period, especially for new energy commercial vehicles and hybrid vehicles. There has been a significant decline. As the policy became clear, the new energy vehicle market began to pick up in the second quarter, and began to show a good growth trend in June. In 2017, the production and sales volume of China's new energy vehicles reached 794,000 and 777,000, respectively, up 53.8% and 53.3% year-on-year respectively, maintaining a rapid growth trend. New energy vehicle sales in 2018 are expected to exceed 1 million units.
In 2017, China has issued 36 new energy vehicle related policies, including macro, subsidies, infrastructure, safety management and many other aspects. Among them, “Parallel Management Measures for Average Fuel Consumption of Passenger Vehicle Enterprises and New Energy Vehicle Points” The promulgation of the "Announcement on the Exemption of New Energy Vehicle Vehicle Purchase Tax" and the adjustment of the subsidy policy in early 2018 indicate that the government hopes to encourage the technological advancement of new energy vehicles through the policy level and realize the development of the new energy vehicle market from policy-driven to market-driven. Smooth transition and promote the sustainable development of the new energy automobile industry.
In the long run, the country's strategy of supporting the sustainable and healthy development of the new energy vehicle industry will remain unchanged for a long time, and the gradual replacement of traditional fuel vehicles is an inevitable trend, which will benefit the new energy automobile industry for a long time. By strengthening the structural reform of the supply side and expanding the supply of high value-added motor products, it will have a positive impact on the revenue and profit of new energy auto parts companies.
(3) Hydrogen fuel cell vehicle
Hydrogen has high energy density and various preparation methods, and it is a renewable and clean energy source. Hydrogen fuel cell uses hydrogen as fuel to convert chemical energy stored in hydrogen and oxygen into electrical energy through electrochemical reaction. It does not involve combustion, no mechanical loss, stable operation, no vibration and noise, and energy conversion rate can be as high. 80% is 2-3 times of the thermal efficiency of ordinary internal combustion engines, and the products are only electricity, heat and water, in line with the global green environmental development concept.
Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have attracted much attention from the industry for their zero emissions, high cruising range and short fueling time. At present, developed countries such as Japan, South Korea and the United States have focused on the development of large-scale fuel cells as a key research project. The business community has also invested heavily in research and development of fuel cell technology. Now, important results have been achieved, so that fuel cells will be replaced. Traditional generators and internal combustion engines are widely used in power generation and automobiles.
In the first year of the industry, which was called the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle in 2017, under the influence of the long-term development plan of the automobile industry and the favorable policies such as subsidies, the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle and fuel cell industry received more attention from enterprises. Many companies have begun to accelerate the deployment of this blue ocean market, and increase research and development and investment.
There are 22 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in the 2017 New Energy Vehicle Recommended Catalogue, involving 11 brands, from 10 car companies. In 2017, the total output of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles was 1,272, an increase of 102% year-on-year. The production doubled to highlight hydrogen. The rapid development of fuel cell vehicles! Domestic hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are mainly for passenger cars and special vehicles. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are currently the focus of development in the field of passenger cars and special vehicles. In the next 2-3 years or so, they will still It will focus on the development of passenger cars and special vehicles.
As of December 2017, there are 19 hydrogen refueling stations in China, and the construction of hydrogen refueling stations is the key to the promotion of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. In order to achieve the goal of building 100 hydropower stations in 2020, the merger with the fuel station will become a future trend.
Cost control is still one of the focuses of fuel cell vehicle development. At present, the high technical difficulty leads to high cost, which seriously restricts the development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. Controlling costs while improving technology is the key point that enterprises must consider. In the future, cooperation and capital development will be more frequent among multinational corporations.
3. New energy vehicle operation
In February 2017, the State Council issued a plan for the development of the "13th Five-Year Plan" modern comprehensive transportation system. Clearly demanding the rapid development of new energy vehicles in urban public transport, taxis and urban logistics. With the country's strong support for new energy vehicles and increased environmental pressure, China's new energy vehicle operation industry has become increasingly hot in 2017. Various industries including shared travel, logistics and car rental have begun to purchase large quantities of new energy vehicles.