Industry chain analysis of gas turbine industry in 2018
The gas generator set is a new type of high-efficiency new energy generator set that uses liquefied gas, natural gas and harmful gas as fuel to replace gasoline and diesel as engine power. It is a new type of generator set developed to meet the world environmental protection requirements and the new market environment.
Gas generator sets can be divided into: natural gas generator sets, petroleum associated gas generator sets, generator gas generator sets, liquefied petroleum gas generator sets, blast furnace gas generator sets, coalbed methane gas generator sets and biogas generator sets.
In recent years, China's natural gas production and consumption have been rising, and natural gas generator sets have gradually become the main products of gas generator sets. In addition, China's biogas construction has gradually stepped up, and the proportion of biogas generators to gas generators will increase. The Prospective Industry Research Institute's "In-depth Research and Investment Strategy Planning Analysis Report for China's Gas Generator Sets in 2018-2023" was interpreted from an upstream perspective.
Natural gas production and consumption growth tends to increase
In recent years, China's natural gas industry has developed rapidly. China's natural gas production in 2010-2017 is increasing year by year, and the growth rate is fluctuating. In 2013, China's natural gas production reached 121 billion cubic meters, an increase of 12.87% year-on-year. Since 2013, the growth rate has continued to decline; in 2014, China's natural gas production reached 130.1 billion cubic meters, an increase of 7.52%. Natural gas production in 2017 was 148.7 billion cubic meters, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year.
With the increase of natural gas production, China's natural gas consumption is increasing, from 81.3 billion cubic meters in 2008 to more than 205.8 billion cubic meters in 2016, with a compound annual growth rate of 10.87%. In 2010, the apparent consumption of natural gas in China exceeded 100 billion cubic meters for the first time, and continued to grow after 2010. In 2015, the apparent consumption of natural gas in China reached 193.2 billion cubic meters, up 5.69% year-on-year; in 2016, China's natural gas consumption was 205.8 billion cubic meters, up 6.52% year-on-year.
In 2017, China's natural gas consumption was 237.3 billion cubic meters, an increase of 15.3%. It can be seen that the supply of natural gas in China is significantly smaller than the demand, and the dependence on imports is gradually increasing.
With the steady growth of domestic natural gas production, a series of long-term import agreements for natural gas such as Sino-Russian, Central Asian and Sino-Burmese liquefied natural gas (LNG) have been signed one after another. The future natural gas supply capacity is expected to increase substantially, ensuring the further development of the natural gas generating unit industry.
The proportion of natural gas power generation will be improved
Before the start of China's "West-East Gas Transmission Project", due to the shortage of natural gas resources in China, China's natural gas industry is relatively weak, natural gas power generation is slow, and the proportion of power generation is low. At the same time, due to insufficient natural gas supply, the gas generators that have been built cannot achieve full-load operation, and the unit has low operating efficiency and limited power generation.
The "13th Five-Year Plan for Natural Gas Development" clearly pointed out that the utilization rate of natural gas power generation in China will increase. In 2020, the installed capacity of natural gas power generation will reach 110 million kilowatts or more, accounting for more than 5% of the total installed capacity of power generation. Natural gas power generation will increase to 285 billion kWh, accounting for 6.7% of total power generation, with a gas consumption of 58 billion cubic meters, accounting for 37.5% of China's total natural gas.
Compared with 2016, the newly installed capacity of natural gas power generation in China during the “13th Five-Year Plan” period will reach 0.4-0.8 billion kilowatts, an increase of 57%~114%.
Biogas investment construction is expected to grow
Energy and environmental issues have become an international hot issue and have attracted widespread attention. The development of new energy sources, replacing the three conventional energy sources of crude oil, natural gas and coal, and rapidly reducing their consumption year by year has become an urgent issue in human development. Biogas is a kind of combustible gas produced by various microorganisms in the air (reduction conditions) and under the appropriate temperature and humidity. China's use of biogas, especially biogas power generation, is of great significance:
First, local resources can be used instead of imported energy to reduce the dependence of the state on imported energy. Second, diversify China's fuel utilization and reduce dependence on one energy source. Third, it is a relatively clean energy source. Replacing fossil fuels with biogas is The ideal way to reduce CO2 emissions (the main component of biogas is methane, its greenhouse effect is 21 times that of carbon dioxide); Fourth, biogas resources are widely distributed and available everywhere, which is an excellent energy source for energy-dispersed supply systems. 5. In some respects, biogas power generation can offset operating costs while reducing carbon emissions and reducing the greenhouse effect.
In January 2017, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Agriculture jointly issued the “13th Five-Year Plan for Rural Biogas Development”, proposing to invest 50 billion yuan to develop biogas projects during the “13th Five-Year Plan” period. By 2020, the newly added pool capacity will be 22.77 million cubic meters, and the newly added biogas production capacity will reach 4.9 billion cubic meters, reaching 20.7 billion cubic meters. The newly added biogas fertilizer will be 26.51 million tons, and the fertilizer will replace 1.14 million tons of fertilizer.