New energy industry report: It is estimated that by 2020, the motor electronic control market will reach 40 billion
The "Made in China 2025" plan clearly states that by 2020, the annual sales volume of China's own brand new energy vehicles will exceed 1 million units. By 2025, the annual sales volume of new energy vehicles will reach 3 million units; by 2020, with the volume of complete vehicles, The industrial chain also ushered in ten years of development space in six years.
First, the new energy vehicle has a certain rapid growth
The new energy vehicle has a certain rapid growth, and the scarcity attribute is highlighted. The sales forecast for 2015 is raised to 25-300,000 units. The main reasons are:
In the second half of the year, it has always been the peak season for car sales. New energy vehicles are no exception: from the perspective of seasonality, the second half of the year has always been the peak season for car sales. In the second half of last year, sales of new energy vehicles were three times that of the first half of the year, and the gap was obvious. In the first half of this year, the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles will be close to 80,000 units, and the data for the second half of the year will further increase;
The battery capacity bottleneck has gradually broken through: the power battery has been in short supply in the first half of the year, resulting in the failure of new energy vehicles to be released in time. As the battery enterprise expansion project is put into production, the bottleneck of battery capacity is gradually breaking through;
Emerging business models: The rise of new business models is a new feature of the new energy vehicle market. Time-sharing leasing has already started nationwide. The introduction of new energy vehicles by taxi software will be the next important demand growth point;
Local subsidies will gradually be put in place in the second half of the year: the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” expiration assessment will bring pressure to local governments. It is expected that there will be more local supporting subsidies in the second half of the year, which will intuitively drive up the production and sales in the second half of the year;
Second, the fundamentals of the industry have undergone fundamental changes.
New energy vehicles are hot and prosperous, China will become the world's largest market: in June, global electric vehicle sales are booming, 42,000 vehicles are approaching historical highs, BYD has won sales champions, and China's seven models are among the top 20; from the first half of the production and sales See, China’s surpassing the United States to become the world’s largest new energy vehicle market is basically no suspense;
The large-scale entry of industrial capital is highly optimistic about the prospects of new energy vehicles: the capital scale of entering the new energy automobile industry in January-July will be nearly 100 billion yuan, and the investment of about 15 companies in the single-power battery sector will reach 40 billion yuan. In the case of investment, the amount of investment fully indicates that the industry is highly optimistic about the market development space.
The performance of upstream and downstream companies in the industrial chain began to be released: After systematically sorting out the industrial chain, in the case of more than three times the downstream demand, the mid-stream four electric (battery, motor, electric control, electric air conditioning) and related equipment appeared to be in short supply, and the performance was heavy. Obviously; at the same time, the proportion of new energy auto segment business in upstream materials and resources is rapidly increasing, bringing new vitality;
1. Elastic comparison of new energy auto sectors
2. Elastic comparison of new energy auto sectors
Third, the new energy vehicle industry chain panorama