Fourth, new energy vehicle sales forecast
The "Made in China 2025" plan clearly states that by 2020, the annual sales volume of China's own brand new energy vehicles will exceed 1 million units. By 2025, the annual sales volume of new energy vehicles will reach 3 million units;
By 2020, key systems such as power batteries and drive motors have reached the international advanced level, with a domestic market share of 80%. With the volume of the whole vehicle, the industrial chain has also ushered in a development space of ten times in six years.
1. Downstream vehicle market--mini car
Market space: The mini-car refers to the A00-class sedan that meets the “Double 80” standard and enjoys state subsidies. In 2014, the sales volume of new energy mini-cars was 28,129. It is estimated that by 2020, the annual sales of mini-cars will reach 320,000.
Market pattern: At present, Zhongtai, Chery, Time and Space, New Ocean and Condit are divided into five markets. Due to the low cost of acquisition and use, the promotion in the early stage is rapid; in the future, the mini-car market may face two major challenges. One is the national electric vehicle. After the standardization, the low-speed car is upgraded, and the second is to sink the passenger car that targets the national electric vehicle market.
Future development: The core of the mini-car competition lies in the use of the scene, positioning the second and third vehicles used by the family; it is in line with the emerging business model, and the time-sharing and taxi software opens up new market space;
2. Downstream vehicle market--bus
Market space: In 2014, the passenger car market sold 21,000 vehicles. The market promotion came from three major drivers: direct transmission of local government promotion pressure, bus fuel subsidy to new energy bus, and new business model. China adopts the development route of commercial-driven passengers. It is estimated that by 2020, the annual sales volume of new energy buses will reach 200,000;
Market structure: The passenger car market has a high threshold and is basically internal competition. In 2014, Yutong occupied more than 30% of the market share. BYD and Nanjing Jinlong followed closely. The top five companies in the sales market had a combined market share of more than 60%. The first echelon status of Yutong, BYD and Jinlong was difficult to move in a short time;
Future development: Compared with the traditional bus market, new energy buses are expected to form a combination of traditional direct sales, financial leasing and line operation. Financing leasing can enable bus companies to achieve light asset operations, and some enterprises have begun to try, compared with European and American countries. China's financial leasing business has a low proportion and is expected to achieve breakthroughs in the field of new energy vehicles.
3. Downstream vehicle market--passenger car
Market space: Passenger cars are driven by the consumer side. The key to promotion is the perfect charging facilities, the preferential policies for the number limit, the reduction in purchase and use costs, and the improvement of safety performance. In 2014, the sales volume of passenger cars was 25,553. It is estimated that by 2020, the annual sales volume of new energy passenger cars will reach 400,000. It is the most flexible in the four major models and has the widest market space.
Market pattern: At present, the market is mainly dominated by BYD, BAIC, JAC and SAIC. BYD has the earliest layout and the most complete models. The sales of BYD Qin, the star model, is far ahead. The “74” strategy covers the whole market; Beiqi New Energy is firmly committed to pure electric road. Relying on resource integration, sales volume has risen rapidly; SAIC and Jianghuai belong to the second echelon and have developed corresponding development plans.
Future development: Although the current market is dominated by domestic car companies, the future of foreign capital and the gradual enrichment of joint venture models will still bring shock to the market. At the same time, Internet companies have set off a car boom. BAT and LeTV have already started to act, compared with mini-cars and buses. The future uncertainty of the passenger car market is also the biggest.
4, the downstream vehicle market - logistics vehicles
Market space: rapid development of logistics industry The surge in demand for urban logistics vehicles is the basis of market outbreaks. In 2014, there were only 500 new energy logistics vehicles. We expect sales to reach 80,000 by 2020.
Market status: traditional trucks pollute the environment, urban areas are limited, the standardization of logistics and transportation within the city is seriously insufficient, and the efficiency is low. The new energy logistics vehicles have zero emissions and enjoy state subsidies, which can replace the traditional logistics vehicles to obtain the permission to enter the city. An effective solution to the needs of the party;
Future development: Many domestic enterprises have already targeted the logistics market. In addition to the powerful enterprises such as BAIC, SAIC, Dongfeng, BYD and Yutong, there are also emerging enterprises that are constantly participating in the competition. The domestic new energy logistics vehicles have just started and will become major auto companies. Fight for the next battlefield.