The growth rate of the photovoltaic industry is likely to fall, and the demand for distributed PV market is imminent.
Affected by factors such as electricity price adjustment and the outbreak of distributed markets, China's PV market growth rate exceeded expectations significantly last year. Relevant PV concept stocks also ushered in a wave of rising prices, doubled the stock price, and worried about the ultra-high growth in the past two years. Will it overdraw the growth momentum of the photovoltaic industry this year? In this regard, experts said that the industry will maintain a relatively stable growth, but it is not realistic to maintain such a high-speed growth in the long run. In the future, market competition will focus on the competition between technology and efficiency.
The National Energy Administration recently released the grid-connected operation of photovoltaic power generation. In 2017, the scale of the photovoltaic power generation market expanded rapidly, with a newly installed capacity of 53.06 million kilowatts, of which, the photovoltaic power station was 33.62 million kilowatts, an increase of 11% year-on-year; the distributed photovoltaic was 19.44 million kilowatts. It increased by 3.7 times year-on-year. By the end of December, the national installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation reached 130 million kilowatts, including photovoltaic power plants of 10.59 million kilowatts and distributed photovoltaics of 19.66 million kilowatts.
From the perspective of the new installed layout, the trend from the northwest to the central and eastern regions is obvious. The newly installed capacity in East China was 14.67 million kilowatts, an increase of 1.7 times year-on-year, accounting for 27.7% of the country. The newly installed capacity in Central China was 10.64 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 70%, accounting for 20% of the country. The newly installed capacity in the northwest region was 6.22 million kilowatts, a year-on-year decrease of 36%. The development of distributed photovoltaics continues to accelerate, with new installed PV installations in Zhejiang, Shandong and Anhui provinces accounting for 45.7% of the country.
Yang Liyou, general manager of Jinneng Technology, believes that the rapid growth of installed capacity benefits from three reasons: the scale of the front runner base has expanded, and the scale of the front runner base has been expanded from the first batch of 1 GW to 5.5 GW after the successful completion of the first batch of runners. The outbreak of the market, with the emergence of high-efficiency components cost-effective advantages, distributed promotion of a variety of business models, the cumulative installed capacity in 2017 exceeded the cumulative installed capacity in the past five years; photovoltaic poverty alleviation as an important form of accurate poverty alleviation, supported by the policy.
“The internal driving force of investment in the photovoltaic industry is also related to the current technology upgrade and system cost reduction. At the same time, the demand of foreign emerging markets is also increasing.” Liu Yong, senior vice president of Zhonglai Co., Ltd. said.
Still optimistic about the distributed photovoltaic market
Whether the PV market can maintain rapid growth in 2018 has received much attention. Yi Yuechun, deputy dean of China Water Resources and Hydropower Planning and Design Institute, said that the national photovoltaic industry has achieved rapid development in recent years. With the advancement of technology and the improvement of industry, this industry may still maintain a relatively stable growth. Of course, the rapid development of 40 to 50 GW per year in the past two years is not realistic.
However, many PV companies are still optimistic about the market. In order to accelerate the progress of the industry, combined with its own production technology and cost control advantages accumulated in the field of single crystal for many years, single crystal leading Longji shares plans to expand the production capacity of monocrystalline silicon wafer products in the next three years to meet the increasingly downstream users of the industry. Growing demand. The announcement shows that Longji will steadily expand the production capacity of monocrystalline silicon wafers. Based on the silicon wafer production capacity of 15 GW at the end of 2017, the company will strive to achieve 28 GW of monocrystalline silicon wafer production capacity by the end of 2018, 36 GW by the end of 2019 and 45 2020 by the end of 2020. Jiva. Tongwei shares also announced that it will gradually complete the production of high-efficiency crystalline silicon cells with a total output of 20 GW in the next 3 to 5 years according to market demand.
For the growth point of the future market, Yang Liyou said that according to the latest announced photovoltaic power project price policy, in addition to the village-level photovoltaic poverty alleviation power station, the subsidies for photovoltaic power plants and distributed projects will be fully reduced, while in more than ten provinces such as Shanxi and Shandong. The PV indicators are all used in centralized PV poverty alleviation power stations. It is expected that PV poverty alleviation will become an important part of the PV market in 2018. At the same time, as the cost of electricity and electricity continues to decline, people's willingness to use green power continues to increase. It is expected that the installed capacity of distributed photovoltaics will continue to grow in 2018.
Technological innovation is the core competitiveness
In the future, photovoltaic power generation may gradually shift from an optional auxiliary energy source to an alternative energy source. Under this circumstance, we need to further improve the economics of photovoltaic power generation through technological advancement and industrial upgrading. The future energy is not only clean, but also economic.
"It can be seen that the efficiency and cost of the photovoltaic industry in the past few decades has always been the key to industrial development. Technology innovation is the core, and improving efficiency is the key. Constantly reducing costs is the pursuit of all PV companies." Longji Li Wenhua, president of Leye Photovoltaic Technology Co., Ltd. said.
The data shows that in 2017, the global solar energy investment reached 2 trillion yuan, and China exceeded 350 billion yuan, which is the largest sector of all energy investment. In the past 8 years, photovoltaic costs have dropped by 90%. At present, China's photovoltaic power generation is growing rapidly and gradually moving toward mainstream energy.
Li Wenxue said that all these achievements depend on technological progress. China's PV industry has developed to the present, technological innovation has emerged in an endless stream, and various high-efficiency technologies have flourished. Especially under the guidance and guidance of the national leader plan, high-efficiency technology has become the core of technological innovation. The efficiency is improved and the speed is obviously accelerated.
Taking Longji as an example, in 2015, it took the lead in the industry to achieve 100% diamond wire cutting of monocrystalline silicon wafers. Longji also cultivated the domestic diamond wire cutting industry chain in the process of completing the diamond wire cutting, supporting the whole industry diamond wire cutting. The promotion of technology, the promotion of this technology has brought revolutionary development to the entire solar industry, saving 12 billion yuan per year for the photovoltaic industry and accelerating the pace of photovoltaic power generation evaluation.
“In 2017, for the first time, we increased the entry criteria for front-runners and set up front-end bases. In the future, it is very possible to achieve the highest price online at the front runner base and front-end base through scale effect and application of cutting-edge technology. It is expected that the market will be efficient and super in 2018. The demand for efficient production capacity will be even stronger." Yang Liyou said.