Upstream raw material - cathode material
Market space: Positive raw materials account for the largest proportion of cell costs, close to 40%. According to our forecast, the demand for 96,000 tons in 2013, and 2020 is 5.3 times that of 2013, with a compound annual growth rate of 27.2%. From the perspective of supply and demand, the supply and demand balance in 2015, but the high-end production capacity is in short supply. If the expansion is not carried out, there will be insufficient capacity in 2016, and domestic enterprises have begun to expand;
Competition pattern: The international cathode material market is mainly the three pillars of China, Japan and Korea, and the current domestic competition pattern is relatively scattered. Most of the cathode materials companies provide lithium iron phosphate, which can provide vehicle-powered lithium battery ternary materials and pass the certification of vehicle manufacturers. Very limited, Dangsheng Technology has basically established its leading position in the field of high-end ternary cathode materials;
Future development: Due to the advantages of raw materials and production costs of domestic enterprises, Japanese and Korean companies will choose to build factories in China in the future, which will drive industry flexibility, while the cathode materials industry will face global integration and global competition.
2, upstream raw materials - anode materials
Market space: According to our statistics and forecasts, the global demand for anode materials in 2013 will be close to 50,000 tons, and 2020 will be five times that of 2013, with a compound growth rate of 24.2%; global anode material overcapacity is serious, and capacity in 2013 is demand 2 Times. In terms of supply and demand, there is a serious excess of global anode material capacity, but there is a clear differentiation within the company, and high-end capacity supply is tight. As domestic production capacity increases, product prices are expected to decline slightly;
Competition pattern: The market for anode materials is highly concentrated, mainly in Japan and China. The two market shares account for more than 95% of the world's total, and are still rising; the market pattern is clearly shifted from Japan to China's industry; the reshuffle of domestic industries is gradually completed. The market share of leading companies such as Betray continues to increase.
Future development: In terms of materials, the demand for anode materials in the world is mainly natural graphite and artificial graphite, which together account for more than 90% of the market share, of which natural graphite accounts for more than 50%, artificial graphite is rising, and the trend of replacing natural graphite is obvious;
3, upstream raw materials - electrolyte
Accelerated localization process + capacity expansion led to a sharp drop in the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate: Lithium hexafluorophosphate has been monopolized by Japanese and Korean companies because of high production technology requirements, and prices have remained high for a long time. In recent years, with the gradual acceleration of the localization of key technologies by related enterprises in China, the price of products has been reduced. On the other hand, the large-scale capacity expansion of lithium hexafluorophosphate manufacturers is one of the important reasons for the decline in product prices.
The supply and demand structure has improved, and the price has further limited space: We believe that with the slowdown in the expansion of lithium hexafluorophosphate capacity, combined with the industry average cost level, there is limited room for further decline in product prices. According to our statistics and forecasts, the demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate in 2013 was 0.78 million tons. In 2020, it will be 4.6 times that of 2013, with a compound annual growth rate of 24.2%. According to the current expansion plan announced by the world's major manufacturers of lithium hexafluorophosphate, the total production capacity is expected to be 20,000 tons. After 2016, there will be a shortage of supply.
4, upstream raw materials - electrolyte
In the electrolyte market structure, Japan and South Korea have three pillars, Japan's share has been declining, the share of China and South Korea has steadily increased, and Chinese companies have adopted a “price-for-price” development strategy to expand market share. At the same time, the localization of core raw material lithium hexafluorophosphate has been greatly improved, reducing manufacturing. cost;
From the perspective of supply and demand, the current production capacity can still meet the demand. After 2016, there will be a shortage of supply. At the same time, the acceleration of the six localization process and the expansion of production capacity will lead to a decline in the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate. As the gap between supply and demand decreases, the price of electrolyte drops. Limited space;
The electrolyte is a heavy industry chain industry, customer certification time is long, and it is very important to stabilize high-quality customer resources. With the development of the industry and mergers and acquisitions, the industry will have a clear differentiation, and the domestic market share will be concentrated in the hands of a few leading enterprises;
5, upstream raw materials - diaphragm
The global diaphragm market is dominated by the oligopolistic market controlled by a small number of companies in Japan and the United States, and the market share of South Korea and Chinese manufacturers has increased steadily;
From the perspective of supply and demand, the global separator is currently oversupplied, but mainly supplies small lithium batteries. The power battery separator is relatively insufficient. The existing capacity expansion plan needs to be tilted toward the power battery diaphragm. Otherwise, there may be insufficient supply after 2016;
The production capacity of the domestic diaphragm industry is not balanced. The dry-end double-drawing process has a serious excess capacity of the low-end diaphragm, the high-end supply is insufficient, and the actual production capacity of the enterprise is very poor. The manufacturers with real core competitiveness can stand out;